Independence movements

History of Welsh devolution and the independence debate

From a rejected 1979 Assembly to a narrowly approved 1997 Assembly, an enlarged Senedd with full law-making powers, a 2024 review of Wales's constitutional options, and Plaid Cymru's 2026 election win.

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The rejected Assembly of 1979

The Wales Act 1978 provided for a Welsh Assembly with executive but not legislative functions. Put to a referendum on 1 March 1979, the proposal was rejected by a large margin, and the Act was not brought into force.[1]

· Referendum or popular consultation

Welsh devolution referendum, 1979

Voters rejected a Welsh Assembly proposed under the Wales Act 1978 by a large margin.

A narrow Yes in 1997

The Labour government elected in 1997 again put devolution to a referendum before legislating. On 18 September 1997, 50.3% of those voting (559,419 votes) backed a Welsh Assembly, a majority of only 6,721 votes on a turnout of 50.3%.[2][3]

The result led to the Government of Wales Act 1998, which established the National Assembly for Wales as a single corporate body exercising both executive and limited legislative functions.[4][5]

· Referendum or popular consultation

Welsh devolution referendum, 1997

Voters narrowly approved a Welsh Assembly, by 50.3% to 49.7%, leading to the Government of Wales Act 1998.

Full law-making powers, 2011

The Government of Wales Act 2006 separated the Welsh Assembly Government from the Assembly and created a route, via referendum, to full law-making powers in the Assembly's devolved subject areas.[6] On 3 March 2011, voters were asked whether the Assembly should now be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it had powers for, and 63.5% (517,132 votes) said Yes against 36.5% (297,380 votes), on a turnout of 35.6%.[7][8]

Yes won in 21 of the 22 local authorities; only Monmouthshire recorded a No majority, and Gwynedd the highest Yes share.[9] The vote triggered the statutory commencement mechanism, and the Assembly gained full legislative competence in its devolved areas.[6]

· Referendum or popular consultation

Welsh law-making powers referendum, 2011

Voters backed full law-making powers for the Assembly in its 20 devolved subject areas, by 63.5% to 36.5%.

Tax powers and the reserved-powers model, 2014–2017

The Wales Act 2014 provided for partial devolution of income tax, limited to the rates applied to non-savings, non-dividend income; the Assembly could not vary the tax bands themselves.[10] Welsh rates of income tax took effect from April 2019.[11]

The Wales Act 2017 moved Wales to a reserved-powers model, similar to Scotland's, under which the Assembly could legislate on any matter not expressly reserved to Westminster, and removed the referendum requirement for the income tax provisions to take effect.[12][13] Section 1 of the Act also declared the Assembly and Welsh Government a permanent part of the UK's constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except on the basis of a referendum decision by the people of Wales.[14]

The rise of YesCymru and the 2021 pledge

Welsh independence campaigning grew markedly from 2020: YesCymru's membership rose from around 2,000 in February 2020 to more than 14,000 by early November 2020.[15] At the 2021 Senedd election, Plaid Cymru pledged to hold an independence referendum within its first term if it won a majority; it did not win a majority and did not proceed with the pledge.[16][17]

Renaming as Senedd Cymru

The National Assembly for Wales was renamed Senedd Cymru, or the Welsh Parliament, with effect from 6 May 2020, under the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.[18]

The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales

The Welsh Government established the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, co-chaired by Professor Laura McAllister and Dr Rowan Williams and comprising eleven members.[19][20] Its final report was presented to the Welsh Government and published on 17–18 January 2024.[21]

The report examined three options — enhanced devolution, a federal United Kingdom, and independence — without endorsing any of them, describing the choice as one for political parties and individual citizens.[22][23] On independence specifically, it concluded the option would increase agency, accountability and subsidiarity for Wales, while carrying the highest risks of the three, particularly around currency, borders and trade.[24]

An enlarged Senedd

The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 increased the Senedd from 60 to 96 members, elected from 16 constituencies of six members each by a closed-list proportional system, first used at the 2026 election.[25]

The 2026 election and Plaid Cymru's minority government

At the Senedd election of 7 May 2026, held under the new system, Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (35.4%, 444,665 votes), Reform UK 34 seats (29.3%, 367,985 votes), Welsh Labour 9 seats (11.1%, 139,203 votes), the Conservatives 7 seats (10.7%), the Greens 2 seats (6.7%) and the Liberal Democrats 1 seat (4.5%).[26] This was the first Senedd or Assembly election at which Plaid Cymru became the largest party, and the first since devolution began at which Welsh Labour did not win the most seats.[27]

Rhun ap Iorwerth was nominated First Minister on 12 May 2026 and his cabinet appointed the next day, forming a Plaid Cymru minority government and making him the first non-Labour First Minister of Wales.[28] Plaid Cymru's platform was to undertake preparatory work — citizen engagement and research on key constitutional questions — to "lay the foundations for a future White Paper on Welsh independence", without proposing a referendum in that Senedd term.[29]

· Election

Senedd election, 2026

Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Senedd for the first time, forming a minority government under Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Party positions and public opinion

Beyond Plaid Cymru, the Welsh Green Party also supports independence.[30] Welsh Labour, the Welsh Liberal Democrats, the Welsh Conservatives and Reform UK all oppose it, though their wider positions on devolution differ: Labour and the Liberal Democrats favour continued or federal devolution, while the Conservatives oppose extending Senedd powers further.[31][32][33][34]

Published opinion polling summarised by the Institute for Government showed support for independence, excluding "don't know" responses, rising from around 24% in late 2019 to around 34% in early 2026, with roughly 20% of respondents undecided, a larger undecided share than in equivalent Scottish polling.[35][36] Support is higher among younger voters, fluent Welsh speakers, Plaid Cymru voters, and in mid and west Wales.[37]

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: In the referendum of 1 March 1979 on the Wales Act 1978, voters rejected a Welsh Assembly by a large margin, and the Act was subsequently repealed.

    • BBC, On this day: 1 March 1979: Wales rejects Assembly plan (BBC News, 1 March 1979) link, article text. Source record
    • Senedd Cymru, History of Welsh devolution (Senedd Cymru) link, Timeline entry for 1979. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: In the referendum of 18 September 1997, 50.3% of those voting (559,419 votes) backed a Welsh Assembly, on a turnout of 50.3% of the electorate; the majority was 6,721 votes.

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Table 3, "Wales" row. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: The 1997 result was won by a majority of just 6,721 votes out of 559,419 cast in favour, out of 1,112,117 valid votes.

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Table 3, "Wales" row. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: The Government of Wales Act 1998 established the National Assembly for Wales as a single corporate body, following the 1997 devolution referendum.

    • Government of Wales Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, s. 1. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: The 1997 referendum result led to the Government of Wales Act 1998 and the establishment of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999.

    • Senedd Cymru, History of Welsh devolution (Senedd Cymru) link, Timeline entries for 1997–1999. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Government of Wales Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, s. 1. Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: Under section 105 of the Government of Wales Act 2006, a Yes vote required Welsh Ministers to make an order bringing Part 4 (full law-making competence in the devolved subject areas) into force, subject to approval by a majority of Assembly Members in plenary.

    • Government of Wales Act 2006, section 103–105 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2006) link, s. 105. Source record
    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Commencement provisions. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: The 2011 referendum asked: "Do you want the Assembly now to be able to make laws on all matters in the 20 subject areas it has powers for?"

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Introduction. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: In the referendum of 3 March 2011, 63.5% (517,132 votes) voted Yes and 36.5% (297,380 votes) voted No, on a turnout of 35.6%.

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Overall Result. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  9. 9.

    Claim: Yes won in 21 of the 22 Welsh local authorities; Monmouthshire was the only authority where a majority voted No (50.6%), and Gwynedd recorded the highest Yes share (76.0%).

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Overall Result; Table 1. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  10. 10.

    Claim: The Wales Act 2014 provided for partial devolution of income tax, limited to the rates applied to non-savings, non-dividend income, with the Assembly unable to vary the bands themselves.

    • Wales Act 2014 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2014) link, ss. 8–14. Source record
    • Senedd Research, Welsh Rates of Income Tax (Senedd Cymru) link, Welsh Rates of Income Tax, overview. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  11. 11.

    Claim: Welsh rates of income tax took effect from April 2019.

    • Senedd Research, Welsh Rates of Income Tax (Senedd Cymru) link, Welsh Rates of Income Tax, timeline. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  12. 12.

    Claim: The Wales Act 2017 moved Wales from a conferred-powers model to a reserved-powers model, in which the Assembly could legislate on any matter not expressly reserved to Westminster.

    • Wales Act 2017 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2017) link, Explanatory Notes, overview. Source record
  13. 13.

    Claim: The Wales Act 2017 also removed the requirement for a referendum before the income tax provisions of the Wales Act 2014 could take effect.

    • Wales Act 2017 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2017) link, s. 17. Source record
  14. 14.

    Claim: Section 1 of the Wales Act 2017 declares the National Assembly for Wales and the Welsh Government a permanent part of the United Kingdom's constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except on the basis of a referendum decision by the people of Wales.

    • Wales Act 2017 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2017) link, s. 1. Source record
  15. 15.

    Claim: YesCymru's membership grew from around 2,000 in February 2020 to more than 14,000 by early November 2020.

    • ITV News Wales, Thousands join Welsh Independence group YesCymru and say "Westminster isn't working for Wales" (ITV News, 6 November 2020) link, article text. Source record
  16. 16.

    Claim: Plaid Cymru's 2021 Senedd manifesto pledged to hold an independence referendum within the first term of a Plaid-led government, if the party won a majority.

    • BBC, Plaid Cymru manifesto 2021 and independence referendum pledge (BBC News, 2021) link, article text. Source record
  17. 17.

    Claim: Plaid Cymru did not win a majority at the 2021 election and so did not proceed with the pledged referendum.

    • BBC, Plaid Cymru manifesto 2021 and independence referendum pledge (BBC News, 2021) link, article text. Source record
  18. 18.

    Claim: The National Assembly for Wales was renamed Senedd Cymru, or the Welsh Parliament in English, with effect from 6 May 2020, under the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.

    • Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2020) link, s. 2. Source record
  19. 19.

    Claim: The Welsh Government established the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales, co-chaired by Professor Laura McAllister and Dr Rowan Williams.

    • Welsh Government, Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Welsh Government) link, About the Commission. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the Commission's establishment. Source record
  20. 20.

    Claim: The Commission comprised eleven members in total, including the two co-chairs.

    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the Commission's membership. Source record
  21. 21.

    Claim: The Commission presented its final report to the Welsh Government, which was published on 17–18 January 2024.

    • Welsh Government, Welsh Government's response to the final report of the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Welsh Government, 2024) link, introduction. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the report's publication. Source record
  22. 22.

    Claim: The final report assessed three models for Wales's constitutional future without recommending one over the others: enhanced devolution, a federal United Kingdom, and Welsh independence. Attributed to Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024), as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the three options. Source record
  23. 23.

    Claim: The Commission stated that the choice between the options was a decision for political parties and individual citizens, and it did not endorse any one option. Attributed to Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024), as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the Commission's conclusion. Source record
  24. 24.

    Claim: On the independence option, the Commission concluded that it would increase agency, accountability and subsidiarity for Wales, but that it carried the highest risks of the three options, particularly around currency, borders and trade. Attributed to Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024), as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the report's assessment of independence. Source record
  25. 25.

    Claim: The Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 increased the number of Senedd Members from 60 to 96, elected from 16 constituencies of six members each by a closed-list proportional system, first used at the 2026 election.

    • Senedd Cymru (Members and Elections) Act 2024 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2024) link, s. 1 and Sch. 1. Source record
  26. 26.

    Claim: At the Senedd election of 7 May 2026, Plaid Cymru won 43 seats (35.4%, 444,665 votes), Reform UK 34 seats (29.3%, 367,985 votes), Welsh Labour 9 seats (11.1%, 139,203 votes), the Conservatives 7 seats (10.7%), the Greens 2 seats (6.7%) and the Liberal Democrats 1 seat (4.5%).

    • ITV News Wales, Wales Decides 2026: The full results are in for the 2026 Senedd Election (ITV News, 7 May 2026) link, full results table. Source record
  27. 27.

    Claim: This was the first Senedd or Assembly election at which Plaid Cymru became the largest party, and the first at which Welsh Labour did not win the most seats since devolution began.

    • ITV News Wales, Wales Decides 2026: The full results are in for the 2026 Senedd Election (ITV News, 7 May 2026) link, article text. Source record
    • Institute for Government, Welsh elections 2026: Senedd Cymru (Welsh parliament) (Institute for Government) link, summary of the result's significance. Source record
  28. 28.

    Claim: Rhun ap Iorwerth was nominated First Minister of Wales on 12 May 2026, and his cabinet was appointed the following day, forming a Plaid Cymru minority government and making him the first non-Labour First Minister of Wales.

    • ITV News Wales, Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed as First Minister of Wales (ITV News, May 2026) link, article text. Source record
  29. 29.

    Claim: Plaid Cymru's 2026 platform was to undertake preparatory work — including citizen engagement and research on key constitutional questions — to "lay the foundations for a future White Paper on Welsh independence", while not proposing to hold a referendum in that Senedd term. Attributed to Plaid Cymru, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of Plaid Cymru's position. Source record
  30. 30.

    Claim: The Welsh Green Party supports independence, with its leader describing it as essential to building a fairer, greener future for Wales. Attributed to Welsh Green Party, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the Welsh Greens' position. Source record
  31. 31.

    Claim: Welsh Labour opposes independence and supports further devolution, stating that its position is motivated by better delivery for the people of Wales rather than an ideological move towards an independent Wales. Attributed to Welsh Labour, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of Welsh Labour's position. Source record
  32. 32.

    Claim: The Welsh Liberal Democrats oppose independence and support devolution within a federal United Kingdom. Attributed to Welsh Liberal Democrats, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the Welsh Liberal Democrats' position. Source record
  33. 33.

    Claim: The Welsh Conservatives oppose both independence and further devolution of powers to the Senedd. Attributed to Welsh Conservatives, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the Welsh Conservatives' position. Source record
  34. 34.

    Claim: Reform UK opposes Welsh independence. Attributed to Reform UK, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of Reform UK's position. Source record
  35. 35.

    Claim: Support for Welsh independence, excluding "don't know" responses, rose from an average of around 24% in late 2019 to around 34% in early 2026. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026), summarising published opinion polls

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of polling trends. Source record
  36. 36.

    Claim: Around 20% of Welsh respondents were undecided on independence, compared with around 10% in equivalent Scottish polling. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026)

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the undecided share. Source record
  37. 37.

    Claim: Support for independence is higher among younger voters, fluent Welsh speakers and Plaid Cymru voters, and higher in mid and west Wales than in north Wales. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026)

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of demographic and regional variation. Source record
  38. 38.

    Claim: The Institute for Government notes that the UK Supreme Court's 2022 ruling on the equivalent Scottish legislation — that a referendum bill related to reserved matters and required Westminster consent — implies a similar constraint for any Welsh independence referendum bill, though no Wales-specific ruling exists. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026)

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the legal route. Source record

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Printed from https://independenceatlas.com/movements/wales/history · last substantive update 24 September 2026.