Independence movements

Wales: constitutional status and the independence question

Where the devolution and independence question stood on 18 September 2026: the legal and institutional position, the 2026 election result, and public opinion.

Reading time
2 min read
Published
Status verified as of

Suggest a correction

Status verified as of 18 September 2026. Political positions change; this explainer describes the documented position on that date.

Current constitutional position

Wales is part of the United Kingdom, with a devolved Senedd and Welsh Government operating on a reserved-powers model since the Wales Act 2017.[1] The 2017 Act declares the Senedd and Welsh Government a permanent part of the UK's constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except on the basis of a referendum decision by the people of Wales.[2]

No Wales-specific court ruling addresses whether the Senedd could legislate for an independence referendum on its own. The Institute for Government notes that the UK Supreme Court's 2022 ruling on equivalent Scottish legislation — that such a bill relates to reserved matters and needs Westminster consent — implies a similar constraint for Wales, though this has not been tested.[3]

The 2026 election and government

Plaid Cymru became the Senedd's largest party for the first time at the 7 May 2026 election, winning 43 of 96 seats, and formed a minority government under First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth.[4][5] The party's platform is to prepare, through citizen engagement and research, for a possible future White Paper on independence, without proposing a referendum in this Senedd term.[6]

Public opinion

Published polling summarised by the Institute for Government showed support for independence at around 34% in early 2026, excluding undecided respondents, up from around 24% in late 2019, with a larger undecided share than in Scotland.[7][8]

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: The Wales Act 2017 moved Wales from a conferred-powers model to a reserved-powers model, in which the Assembly could legislate on any matter not expressly reserved to Westminster.

    • Wales Act 2017 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2017) link, Explanatory Notes, overview. Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: Section 1 of the Wales Act 2017 declares the National Assembly for Wales and the Welsh Government a permanent part of the United Kingdom's constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except on the basis of a referendum decision by the people of Wales.

    • Wales Act 2017 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2017) link, s. 1. Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: The Institute for Government notes that the UK Supreme Court's 2022 ruling on the equivalent Scottish legislation — that a referendum bill related to reserved matters and required Westminster consent — implies a similar constraint for any Welsh independence referendum bill, though no Wales-specific ruling exists. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026)

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the legal route. Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: This was the first Senedd or Assembly election at which Plaid Cymru became the largest party, and the first at which Welsh Labour did not win the most seats since devolution began.

    • ITV News Wales, Wales Decides 2026: The full results are in for the 2026 Senedd Election (ITV News, 7 May 2026) link, article text. Source record
    • Institute for Government, Welsh elections 2026: Senedd Cymru (Welsh parliament) (Institute for Government) link, summary of the result's significance. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: Rhun ap Iorwerth was nominated First Minister of Wales on 12 May 2026, and his cabinet was appointed the following day, forming a Plaid Cymru minority government and making him the first non-Labour First Minister of Wales.

    • ITV News Wales, Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed as First Minister of Wales (ITV News, May 2026) link, article text. Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: Plaid Cymru's 2026 platform was to undertake preparatory work — including citizen engagement and research on key constitutional questions — to "lay the foundations for a future White Paper on Welsh independence", while not proposing to hold a referendum in that Senedd term. Attributed to Plaid Cymru, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of Plaid Cymru's position. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: Support for Welsh independence, excluding "don't know" responses, rose from an average of around 24% in late 2019 to around 34% in early 2026. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026), summarising published opinion polls

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of polling trends. Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: Around 20% of Welsh respondents were undecided on independence, compared with around 10% in equivalent Scottish polling. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026)

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of the undecided share. Source record

Source note

Show in the notes list

Printed from https://independenceatlas.com/movements/wales/status · last substantive update 24 September 2026.