Independence movements

Wales

Covers the modern devolution and self-government debate in Wales from 1979 onward: the referendums, devolution Acts and constitutional reviews, and the parties' and public's current positions on independence. It does not attempt a general political or cultural history of Wales.

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What is this case about?

Wales rejected a devolved Assembly in a 1979 referendum but narrowly approved one in 1997, leading to the National Assembly for Wales in 1999.[1][2][3] Its powers were extended in stages: full law-making competence followed a 2011 referendum, partial income tax powers arrived from 2019, and the 2017 Wales Act declared the institution a permanent part of the UK's constitutional arrangements.[4][5][6] Renamed Senedd Cymru in 2020, it elected Plaid Cymru as its largest-ever party in 2026, forming a minority government that has said it will prepare, but not yet hold a referendum on, independence.[7][8][9]

At a glance

  • A 1979 referendum rejected a Welsh Assembly; a 1997 referendum narrowly approved one, by 50.3% to 49.7%.[1][2]
  • In 2011, 63.5% voted to give the Assembly full law-making powers in its devolved subject areas.[4]
  • The Wales Act 2017 declared the Assembly and Welsh Government a permanent part of the UK's constitution.[6]
  • A Welsh Government-established Commission concluded in 2024 that independence was a viable but higher-risk option, without recommending it.[10][11]
  • In May 2026 Plaid Cymru became the largest Senedd party for the first time, forming a minority government under Rhun ap Iorwerth.[8][12]
  • Plaid Cymru's 2026 platform is to prepare a future White Paper on independence, not to hold a referendum in this term; public support for independence stood at around 34% in early 2026.[9][13]

Current position

Status verified as of

Wales is part of the United Kingdom with a devolved Senedd on a reserved-powers model, declared a permanent part of the UK's constitutional arrangements since 2017. Plaid Cymru, the largest party after the 2026 election, has said it will prepare a future White Paper on independence without proposing a referendum in the current term; other parties oppose independence.[6][9][14]

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History

History of Welsh devolution and the independence debate

From a rejected 1979 Assembly to a narrowly approved 1997 Assembly, an enlarged Senedd with full law-making powers, a 2024 review of Wales's constitutional options, and Plaid Cymru's 2026 election win.

981 words · 5 min read

Key dates

Full timeline

· Referendum or popular consultation

Welsh devolution referendum, 1979

Voters rejected a Welsh Assembly proposed under the Wales Act 1978 by a large margin.

Significance here: Ended the first statutory attempt at a Welsh Assembly for a generation.

· Referendum or popular consultation

Welsh devolution referendum, 1997

Voters narrowly approved a Welsh Assembly, by 50.3% to 49.7%, leading to the Government of Wales Act 1998.

Significance here: Provided the narrow popular endorsement for the National Assembly for Wales, established in 1999.

· Referendum or popular consultation

Welsh law-making powers referendum, 2011

Voters backed full law-making powers for the Assembly in its 20 devolved subject areas, by 63.5% to 36.5%.

Significance here: Triggered full legislative competence for the Assembly under Part 4 of the Government of Wales Act 2006.

· Election

Senedd election, 2026

Plaid Cymru became the largest party in the Senedd for the first time, forming a minority government under Rhun ap Iorwerth.

Significance here: Produced the first Plaid Cymru-led Welsh Government and the first Senedd election in which Labour did not win the most seats.

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: In the referendum of 1 March 1979 on the Wales Act 1978, voters rejected a Welsh Assembly by a large margin, and the Act was subsequently repealed.

    • BBC, On this day: 1 March 1979: Wales rejects Assembly plan (BBC News, 1 March 1979) link, article text. Source record
    • Senedd Cymru, History of Welsh devolution (Senedd Cymru) link, Timeline entry for 1979. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: In the referendum of 18 September 1997, 50.3% of those voting (559,419 votes) backed a Welsh Assembly, on a turnout of 50.3% of the electorate; the majority was 6,721 votes.

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Table 3, "Wales" row. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: The 1997 referendum result led to the Government of Wales Act 1998 and the establishment of the National Assembly for Wales in 1999.

    • Senedd Cymru, History of Welsh devolution (Senedd Cymru) link, Timeline entries for 1997–1999. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Government of Wales Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, s. 1. Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: In the referendum of 3 March 2011, 63.5% (517,132 votes) voted Yes and 36.5% (297,380 votes) voted No, on a turnout of 35.6%.

    • Jennings, Martin, Results of the National Assembly for Wales Referendum 2011 (National Assembly for Wales, Members' Research Service, March 2011) link, Overall Result. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: Welsh rates of income tax took effect from April 2019.

    • Senedd Research, Welsh Rates of Income Tax (Senedd Cymru) link, Welsh Rates of Income Tax, timeline. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: Section 1 of the Wales Act 2017 declares the National Assembly for Wales and the Welsh Government a permanent part of the United Kingdom's constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except on the basis of a referendum decision by the people of Wales.

    • Wales Act 2017 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2017) link, s. 1. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: The National Assembly for Wales was renamed Senedd Cymru, or the Welsh Parliament in English, with effect from 6 May 2020, under the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.

    • Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2020) link, s. 2. Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: This was the first Senedd or Assembly election at which Plaid Cymru became the largest party, and the first at which Welsh Labour did not win the most seats since devolution began.

    • ITV News Wales, Wales Decides 2026: The full results are in for the 2026 Senedd Election (ITV News, 7 May 2026) link, article text. Source record
    • Institute for Government, Welsh elections 2026: Senedd Cymru (Welsh parliament) (Institute for Government) link, summary of the result's significance. Source record
  9. 9.

    Claim: Plaid Cymru's 2026 platform was to undertake preparatory work — including citizen engagement and research on key constitutional questions — to "lay the foundations for a future White Paper on Welsh independence", while not proposing to hold a referendum in that Senedd term. Attributed to Plaid Cymru, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of Plaid Cymru's position. Source record
  10. 10.

    Claim: The final report assessed three models for Wales's constitutional future without recommending one over the others: enhanced devolution, a federal United Kingdom, and Welsh independence. Attributed to Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024), as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the three options. Source record
  11. 11.

    Claim: On the independence option, the Commission concluded that it would increase agency, accountability and subsidiarity for Wales, but that it carried the highest risks of the three options, particularly around currency, borders and trade. Attributed to Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (2024), as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, The Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales (Institute for Government) link, summary of the report's assessment of independence. Source record
  12. 12.

    Claim: Rhun ap Iorwerth was nominated First Minister of Wales on 12 May 2026, and his cabinet was appointed the following day, forming a Plaid Cymru minority government and making him the first non-Labour First Minister of Wales.

    • ITV News Wales, Rhun ap Iorwerth confirmed as First Minister of Wales (ITV News, May 2026) link, article text. Source record
  13. 13.

    Claim: Support for Welsh independence, excluding "don't know" responses, rose from an average of around 24% in late 2019 to around 34% in early 2026. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 15 May 2026), summarising published opinion polls

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of polling trends. Source record
  14. 14.

    Claim: Welsh Labour opposes independence and supports further devolution, stating that its position is motivated by better delivery for the people of Wales rather than an ideological move towards an independent Wales. Attributed to Welsh Labour, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Institute for Government, Welsh independence (Institute for Government) link, summary of Welsh Labour's position. Source record

Source note

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