Independence movements

Scotland: constitutional status and the referendum question

Where the independence question stood on 14 September 2026: the legal route, the political demand and the UK Government’s response.

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Status verified as of 14 September 2026. Political positions change; this explainer describes the documented position on that date.

Current constitutional position

Scotland is part of the United Kingdom and has a devolved Parliament created by the Scotland Act 1998.[1] The Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England is a reserved matter.[2] Since 2016 the Scotland Act has declared the Scottish Parliament and Government a permanent part of the UK’s constitutional arrangements.[3]

In 2022 the UK Supreme Court held that the Scottish Parliament cannot legislate for an independence referendum unless the reserved matters are changed, for example by an order under section 30 of the Scotland Act.[4] The 2014 referendum used such an order, which was agreed between the two governments and limited to a poll held by the end of 2014.[5][6]

If powers were transferred, the Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 would provide the default rules for conducting a referendum unless other provision were made.[7]

The 2026 demand for a new referendum

After the May 2026 election, in which pro-independence parties won 73 of 129 seats, the Scottish Parliament voted 72 to 55 on 26 May to call for a section 30 order.[8][9] On 28 August 2026 the Scottish Government published a draft Independence Referendum Bill with the 2014 question, stating that it would be introduced once the powers were secured.[10]

No referendum date has been set: the draft bill leaves the date to be added on introduction.[10] On 13 September 2026 the Press Association reported that the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, had written to the First Minister that a referendum remained “off limits”.[11]

Public opinion

Opinion is closely divided. The Scottish Social Attitudes survey measured support for independence at 47% in 2024, and the Institute for Government’s May 2026 update described polls as showing no decisive lead for either side.[12][13]

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: Section 1 of the Scotland Act 1998 provides that there shall be a Scottish Parliament.

    • Scotland Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, s. 1(1). Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: The Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England is a reserved matter under the Scotland Act 1998.

    • Scotland Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, Sch. 5, Pt I, para. 1(b). Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: The Scotland Act 2016 declares the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Government a permanent part of the UK’s constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except after a referendum in Scotland.

    • Scotland Act 2016 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2016) link, s. 1, inserting s. 63A into the Scotland Act 1998. Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: On 23 November 2022 the Supreme Court held unanimously that the proposed referendum provision related to the reserved matters of the Union and the UK Parliament, so the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for it without a change to the reserved matters.

    • Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 (Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022) link, paras. 82–83 and 92. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: The governments agreed to promote a section 30 order allowing a single-question referendum before the end of 2014.

    • UK Government and Scottish Government, Agreement between the United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government on a referendum on independence for Scotland (UK Government, 15 October 2012) link, Agreement, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: The order, made on 12 February 2013, removed the reservation for an independence referendum held no later than 31 December 2014 with one ballot paper offering only two responses.

    • The Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 12 February 2013) link, Art. 3, inserting Sch. 5 Pt I para. 5A. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: The Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 would set the rules for a future referendum held under Scottish legislation unless other provision were made, broadly replicating UK referendum law.

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, What rules would govern how an independence referendum would be held?. Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: The SNP fell short of the 65 seats needed for a majority, but the SNP and Greens together held 73 seats.

    • McKay, Sarah; McIver, Iain and Aiton, Andrew, The results are in – general election 2026 (Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe), 9 May 2026) link, The make-up of the Session 7 Parliament. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  9. 9.

    Claim: On 26 May 2026 the Scottish Parliament agreed, by 72 votes to 55, a motion calling on the UK Government to make a section 30 order devolving the power to hold an independence referendum.

    • Scottish Parliament, Motion S7M-00105: Ambitious for Scotland (Scottish Parliament, Lodged 20 May 2026; taken in the Chamber 26 May 2026) link, Motion as amended; vote. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  10. 10.

    Claim: On 28 August 2026 the Scottish Government published a draft Independence Referendum Bill using the 2014 question; it said the bill would be introduced once the necessary powers were secured.

    • Scottish Government, Draft Independence Referendum Bill (Scottish Government, 28 August 2026), ISBN 9781807754792 link, Publication page and news release. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  11. 11.

    Claim: In September 2026 Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Commons that another vote could be held if there were a clear consensus for it in Scotland, but a later letter to John Swinney said a referendum remained “off limits”. Attributed to PA Media report carried by STV News, 13 September 2026

    • PA Media, Devolved First Ministers to sign independence declaration (STV News, 13 September 2026) link, fifth paragraph. Source record
  12. 12.

    Claim: In the Scottish Social Attitudes survey, support for independence stood at 47% in 2024, compared with 27% in 1999.

    • National Centre for Social Research, Scottish Social Attitudes survey marks 25 years tracking Scotland’s changing views (National Centre for Social Research, 9 October 2025) link, Findings on identity and independence. Source record
  13. 13.

    Claim: The Institute for Government described opinion polls as showing Scotland almost evenly divided, with neither side establishing a decisive lead. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 29 May 2026)

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, Does the Scottish public support independence?. Source record

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Printed from https://independenceatlas.com/movements/scotland/status · last substantive update 15 September 2026.