Independence movements

History of the Scottish independence debate

How a kingdom that joined Great Britain in 1707 developed a home-rule and independence politics, gained a devolved Parliament, voted on independence in 2014 and returned to the question after Brexit.

Reading time
8 min read
Published
Status verified as of

Suggest a correction

A kingdom, a parliament and the Union of 1707

Before 1707 Scotland was an independent kingdom, and its Parliament made the kingdom’s laws from the early thirteenth century.[1] That long institutional past matters to later debates, but it is not the same thing as the modern independence campaign, which took organised form in the twentieth century.

The Union with England took effect on 1 May 1707. Its first article united the two kingdoms as Great Britain, and its third created one Parliament of Great Britain, so the Parliament of Scotland ceased to sit.[2][3] The settlement preserved some distinct Scottish institutions: Article XIX kept the Court of Session in Scotland.[4]

· Constitutional change

Union of Scotland and England, 1707

The Kingdoms of Scotland and England were united as Great Britain, with one Parliament, from 1 May 1707.

Scottish government without a Scottish parliament, 1885–1960s

For much of the following two centuries Scotland had distinct administration but no legislature of its own. A Secretaryship for Scotland was created in 1885 with responsibility for areas such as education, local government, police and prisons; the office became a full Secretary of State in 1926, and in 1939 the main Scottish departments were vested directly in that minister.[5][6]

Organised nationalism developed alongside this administrative arrangement. The Scottish National Party was formed in 1934, and in April 1945 its candidate Robert McIntyre won the Motherwell by-election, although he lost the seat at the general election a few months later.[7][8]

Electoral breakthrough and the first devolution referendum

The SNP made a notable gain in 1967, when Winifred Ewing won the Hamilton by-election on 2 November with 46.1% of the vote.[9] Meanwhile a Royal Commission on the Constitution examined models of devolution; it reported in 1973.[10]

Electoral pressure grew through the 1970s. Margo MacDonald won Govan in November 1973, and at the two general elections of 1974 the SNP took 21.9% and then 30.4% of the Scottish vote.[11][12]

The Labour government legislated for a Scottish Assembly. During the bill’s passage in January 1978 the Commons added a requirement that a repeal order be laid if fewer than 40% of those entitled to vote supported it.[13] The Scotland Act 1978 became law in July 1978 on that basis.[14]

In the referendum of 1 March 1979, 51.6% of those voting said Yes, but that was only about a third of the electorate.[15] The government lost a vote of no confidence and then the May 1979 general election, and the Act was repealed in June 1979.[16]

· Referendum or popular consultation

Scottish devolution referendum, 1979

A majority of voters backed the Scotland Act 1978, but the Yes vote fell short of the 40% of the electorate the Act required, and the Act was repealed.

From the Constitutional Convention to a Scottish Parliament

The Conservative governments in office from 1979 did not revive the 1978 scheme; they devolved further administrative powers and adjusted the way Scottish business was handled in Parliament.[17] Pattie, Denver, Mitchell and Bochel argue that the Conservatives’ continued power at Westminster, while they were a minority in Scotland, was perhaps the most important engine of support for home rule in these years.[18]

After the 1987 general election, political parties, local authorities, churches and voluntary organisations formed the Scottish Constitutional Convention. It first met in March 1989, published a Claim of Right for Scotland, and in November 1995 set out its proposals in Scotland’s Parliament, Scotland’s Right.[19][20]

The Labour government elected in 1997 put its proposals to a referendum before introducing legislation, and this time a simple majority was enough.[21] On 11 September 1997, 74.3% of voters backed a Scottish Parliament and 63.5% backed tax-varying powers; the Yes vote for a parliament equalled 44.7% of the electorate and every region voted in favour.[22][23]

The Scotland Act became law in November 1998.[24] It established the Scottish Parliament but reserved the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England to Westminster, a detail that would later decide the legal argument over a second referendum.[25][26] The Parliament first met on 12 May 1999.[27]

· Referendum or popular consultation

Scottish devolution referendum, 1997

Voters approved a Scottish Parliament (74.3%) and tax-varying powers (63.5%), leading to the Scotland Act 1998.

SNP government and the agreed route to a referendum

Devolution also changed where nationalists could win power. The SNP won 47 seats in 2007, one more than Labour, and governed as a minority.[28][29] In 2011 it won 69 of the 129 seats, an outright majority.[30]

The UK and Scottish Governments then negotiated a legal route. In the Edinburgh Agreement of 15 October 2012 they agreed that the referendum should have a clear legal base, be legislated for by the Scottish Parliament and produce a result everyone would respect, and they undertook to promote a section 30 order for a single-question vote before the end of 2014.[31][32]

The order made on 12 February 2013 set its conditions: a poll by 31 December 2014 with a choice between only two responses.[33] The Scottish Parliament’s referendum legislation fixed the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” and the date of 18 September 2014, and extended the vote to people aged 16 and over.[34][35]

In November 2013 the Scottish Government published its prospectus, Scotland’s Future. It proposed independence on 24 March 2016 after negotiations, continued membership of the Union of the Crowns with the Queen as head of state, and a formal Sterling Area with the rest of the UK.[36][37]

The currency proposal became one of the campaign’s sharpest disputes. In February 2014 the Chancellor of the Exchequer, George Osborne, argued that there was no legal reason for the rest of the UK to share its currency with an independent Scotland and that a Scotland which left the UK would leave the pound.[38]

· Agreement

Edinburgh Agreement, 2012

The UK and Scottish Governments agreed the terms for a legal, single-question independence referendum to be held by the end of 2014.

The 2014 referendum

Two campaign organisations, Yes Scotland and Better Together, were appointed as the designated lead campaigners in April 2014.[39] The electoral register for the poll included 109,593 voters aged 16 or 17.[40]

On 18 September 2014, 2,001,926 people voted No and 1,617,989 voted Yes: 55.3% to 44.7% of valid votes.[41][42] Turnout was 84.6% of the 4,283,938 registered voters.[43] The Electoral Commission reported that the referendum was well run and that turnout was the highest at any Scotland-wide poll since universal suffrage.[44]

Further devolution after the No vote

The result was followed by cross-party talks. On 27 November 2014 the Smith Commission published Heads of Agreement on further devolution reached by representatives of all five main parties in Scotland.[45] The Scotland Act 2016 was presented as delivering that agreement.[46]

The 2016 Act also wrote two constitutional statements into the Scotland Act: that the Scottish Parliament and Government are a permanent part of the UK’s constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished without a referendum in Scotland, and that Westminster will not normally legislate on devolved matters without Holyrood’s consent.[47][48]

Brexit and the renewed demand for a referendum

The 2016 referendum on European Union membership produced different results in Scotland and in the UK as a whole. Voters in Scotland cast 1,661,191 votes to remain and 1,018,322 to leave, and Remain led in every Scottish council area; across the UK, 51.9% voted to leave.[49][50]

The Scottish Government soon sought another vote. In March 2017 Theresa May said that “now is not the time” while Brexit talks were under way; on 28 March the Scottish Parliament nonetheless voted 69 to 59 to seek a section 30 order for a referendum between autumn 2018 and spring 2019, and three days later Nicola Sturgeon wrote to the Prime Minister to begin discussions.[51][52][53]

No order followed. After a further request in December 2019, Boris Johnson replied on 14 January 2020 that he could not agree to a transfer of power for further referendums, arguing that the 2014 vote had been promised as a “once in a generation” choice.[54]

Independence parties kept their parliamentary majority: the SNP won 64 seats in 2021 and the Scottish Greens eight.[55][56] A Scottish statute of 2020, the Referendums (Scotland) Act, already provided general rules for referendums held under Scottish legislation.[57]

On 28 June 2022 Nicola Sturgeon told the Scottish Parliament that the government proposed a consultative referendum on 19 October 2023 and that the Lord Advocate would ask the Supreme Court whether the Parliament could legislate for it.[58] The UK Government was then unwilling to agree another section 30 order.[59]

The Supreme Court’s ruling

On 23 November 2022 the Supreme Court gave its unanimous answer. A bill providing for a referendum on independence related to two reserved matters, the Union and the Parliament of the United Kingdom, so the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for it unless the reserved matters were changed.[60]

The Court reasoned that even a referendum without immediate legal consequences would be a political event with important political consequences, and it held that the right to self-determination in international law was not in issue.[61][62] It also stressed that it was deciding a question of legal competence, not whether Scotland should become independent.[63]

Differences within the independence camp

Supporters of independence have not always agreed on what independence would involve. The 2013 prospectus proposed keeping the pound in a Sterling Area; in 2019 the SNP conference voted for a new Scottish currency as soon as practicable; and a Scottish Government paper of October 2025 proposed using sterling for a period before moving to a Scottish pound.[37][64]

The Scottish Greens, the other pro-independence party in the Parliament, set out their own programme in 2026: beginning the section 30 process and seeking the devolution of further reserved powers.[65]

Recent political position

The SNP suffered a setback at the 2024 UK general election, falling from 48 to 9 MPs.[66] Survey evidence nonetheless showed support for independence far above its level at the start of devolution: 47% in the 2024 Scottish Social Attitudes survey, against 27% in 1999.[67]

At the Scottish Parliament election of 7 May 2026 the SNP won 58 seats, short of a majority, but together with the Greens held 73 of 129.[68][69] On 26 May the Parliament voted 72 to 55 to call on the UK Government to make a section 30 order, and on 28 August the Scottish Government published a draft referendum bill to be introduced once powers were transferred.[70][71]

The UK Government’s answer has stayed negative. Keir Starmer restated his opposition after the election, and in September 2026 the Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, was reported to have written to John Swinney that a referendum remained “off limits”.[72][73] The status page records the position as verified on 14 September 2026.

How the case is interpreted

In their analysis of the 1997 referendum, Pattie, Denver, Mitchell and Bochel read the result as evidence that a Scottish parliament had become the “settled will” of voters, and they linked the growth of home-rule sentiment to the mismatch between Conservative government at Westminster and Conservative weakness in Scotland.[74][18]

Recent analysis stresses how evenly divided opinion remains on independence itself.[75][67] The legal position, by contrast, was clarified in 2022: the question of whether a referendum can lawfully be held under Scottish legislation now depends on the UK Parliament or Government changing the reserved matters.[60]

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: The Parliament of Scotland was the law-maker of the independent Kingdom of Scotland from the early thirteenth century until 1707.

    • Scottish Parliament, Origins of the Scottish Parliament (Scottish Parliament) link, Origins of the Scottish Parliament. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: Article I of the Union provided that Scotland and England would be united into one kingdom named Great Britain from 1 May 1707.

    • Union with England Act 1707 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1707) link, Article I. Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: Article III provided for a single Parliament of Great Britain.

    • Union with England Act 1707 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1707) link, Article III. Source record
    • Scottish Parliament, Origins of the Scottish Parliament (Scottish Parliament) link, Origins of the Scottish Parliament. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: Article XIX kept the Court of Session within Scotland after the Union.

    • Union with England Act 1707 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1707) link, Article XIX. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: A Secretaryship for Scotland was established in 1885 with responsibilities that included education, local government, police and prisons.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 204, entry for 1885. Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: The Scottish Secretary became a full Secretary of State in 1926, and Scottish departments were vested directly in the Secretary of State in 1939.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 204, entries for 1926 and 1939. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: The Scottish National Party was formed in 1934.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 204, entry for 1934. Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: The SNP’s Robert McIntyre won the Motherwell by-election in April 1945 and lost the seat at the general election later that year.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 204, entry for 1945. Source record
  9. 9.

    Claim: Winifred Ewing won the Hamilton by-election for the SNP on 2 November 1967 with 46.1% of the vote.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 205, entry for 1967. Source record
  10. 10.

    Claim: A Royal Commission on the Constitution considered models of devolution; the Scottish Parliament dates it to 1969, while the 1979 Yearbook chronology records its appointment in December 1968 and its report (Kilbrandon) in October 1973.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, The path to devolution, para. 1. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 205, entries for 1968 and 1973. Source record
  11. 11.

    Claim: Margo MacDonald won the Govan by-election for the SNP on 8 November 1973 with 41.9% of the vote.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 205, entry for 1973. Source record
  12. 12.

    Claim: At the February 1974 general election the SNP won 21.9% of the Scottish vote and gained six seats; in October 1974 it won 30.4% of the vote.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, pp. 205–206, entries for 1974. Source record
  13. 13.

    Claim: On 25 January 1978 the Commons carried, by 168 votes to 142, an amendment requiring a repeal order if fewer than 40% of those entitled to vote in the referendum voted Yes.

    • Chronology of devolution 1885–1978, The Scottish Government Yearbook 1979 (Paul Harris Publishing, 1979), ISBN 0904505537 link, p. 207, entry for 25 January 1978. Source record
  14. 14.

    Claim: The Scotland Act 1978, which would have created a Scottish Assembly, became law on 31 July 1978 and required the support of 40% of the whole electorate to come into force.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, The path to devolution, paras. 2–3. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  15. 15.

    Claim: In the referendum of 1 March 1979, 51.6% of those voting supported the devolution scheme, but the Yes vote amounted to about a third of the electorate, below the 40% requirement.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, The path to devolution, para. 4. Government perspective or primary official source Source record Gives 52% of voters and 33% of the electorate (rounded).
    • Pattie, Charles; Denver, David; Mitchell, James and Bochel, Hugh, The 1997 Scottish Referendum: An Analysis of the Results, Scottish Affairs (Winter 1998) link, PDF p. 2. Source record Gives 51.6% of those voting and 32.5% of the eligible electorate.
  16. 16.

    Claim: After the referendum the Labour government lost a vote of no confidence and a general election in May 1979, and the Scotland Act 1978 was repealed in June 1979.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, The path to devolution, para. 4. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  17. 17.

    Claim: The Conservative government elected in 1979 did not support the 1978 devolution scheme and instead devolved further administrative powers and changed the handling of Scottish business at Westminster.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, Developments from 1979 to 1997. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  18. 18.

    Claim: Pattie, Denver, Mitchell and Bochel argue that the Conservatives’ continued domination of British politics, while they were a minority in Scotland, was perhaps the most important motor of pro-devolution sentiment. Attributed to Pattie, Denver, Mitchell and Bochel (1998)

    • Pattie, Charles; Denver, David; Mitchell, James and Bochel, Hugh, The 1997 Scottish Referendum: An Analysis of the Results, Scottish Affairs (Winter 1998) link, PDF pp. 2–3. Source record
  19. 19.

    Claim: The Scottish Constitutional Convention, formed by political parties, local authorities, churches and voluntary organisations after the 1987 election, first met in March 1989 and published a Claim of Right for Scotland.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, The Scottish Constitutional Convention. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  20. 20.

    Claim: The Convention’s final report, Scotland’s Parliament, Scotland’s Right, was published in November 1995.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, The Scottish Constitutional Convention. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  21. 21.

    Claim: The 1997 referendum was held before the devolution bill was introduced, and a simple majority was required.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, Referendum results, para. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  22. 22.

    Claim: In the referendum of 11 September 1997, 74.3% of those voting backed a Scottish Parliament and 63.5% backed tax-varying powers.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, Referendum results, para. 3. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Pattie, Charles; Denver, David; Mitchell, James and Bochel, Hugh, The 1997 Scottish Referendum: An Analysis of the Results, Scottish Affairs (Winter 1998) link, PDF p. 11, Table 4. Source record
  23. 23.

    Claim: In 1997 the Yes vote for a parliament equalled 44.7% of the electorate, clearing the 40% yardstick used in 1979, and every region voted in favour.

    • Pattie, Charles; Denver, David; Mitchell, James and Bochel, Hugh, The 1997 Scottish Referendum: An Analysis of the Results, Scottish Affairs (Winter 1998) link, PDF pp. 10–11. Source record
  24. 24.

    Claim: The Scotland Bill was introduced in December 1997 and became the Scotland Act in November 1998.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, Referendum results, para. 4. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  25. 25.

    Claim: Section 1 of the Scotland Act 1998 provides that there shall be a Scottish Parliament.

    • Scotland Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, s. 1(1). Source record
  26. 26.

    Claim: The Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England is a reserved matter under the Scotland Act 1998.

    • Scotland Act 1998 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 1998) link, Sch. 5, Pt I, para. 1(b). Source record
  27. 27.

    Claim: The re-established Scottish Parliament first met on 12 May 1999.

    • Scottish Parliament, Origins of the Scottish Parliament (Scottish Parliament) link, Origins of the Scottish Parliament. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  28. 28.

    Claim: At the 2007 Scottish Parliament election the SNP won 47 seats, one more than Labour’s 46.

    • Scottish Parliament, 2007 Election Results (Scottish Parliament) link, Party seat totals. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  29. 29.

    Claim: The SNP governed as a minority after the 2007 election.

    • McKay, Sarah; McIver, Iain and Aiton, Andrew, The results are in – general election 2026 (Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe), 9 May 2026) link, What do the results mean for the formation of a Scottish Government?. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  30. 30.

    Claim: At the 2011 election the SNP won 69 of the Parliament’s 129 seats, a majority.

    • Scottish Parliament, 2011 Election Results (Scottish Parliament) link, Party seat totals. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • McKay, Sarah; McIver, Iain and Aiton, Andrew, The results are in – general election 2026 (Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe), 9 May 2026) link, What are the results…?, para. 1. Government perspective or primary official source Source record Size of the Parliament and majority threshold.
  31. 31.

    Claim: In the Edinburgh Agreement of 15 October 2012 the UK and Scottish Governments agreed that the referendum should have a clear legal base, be legislated for by the Scottish Parliament and deliver a result that everyone would respect.

    • UK Government and Scottish Government, Agreement between the United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government on a referendum on independence for Scotland (UK Government, 15 October 2012) link, Agreement, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  32. 32.

    Claim: The governments agreed to promote a section 30 order allowing a single-question referendum before the end of 2014.

    • UK Government and Scottish Government, Agreement between the United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government on a referendum on independence for Scotland (UK Government, 15 October 2012) link, Agreement, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  33. 33.

    Claim: The order, made on 12 February 2013, removed the reservation for an independence referendum held no later than 31 December 2014 with one ballot paper offering only two responses.

    • The Scotland Act 1998 (Modification of Schedule 5) Order 2013 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 12 February 2013) link, Art. 3, inserting Sch. 5 Pt I para. 5A. Source record
  34. 34.

    Claim: The Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 set the question “Should Scotland be an independent country?” and the poll date of 18 September 2014.

    • Scottish Independence Referendum Act 2013 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2013) link, s. 1(2) and (4). Source record
  35. 35.

    Claim: People aged 16 or over on polling day were entitled to vote, subject to the Act’s other conditions.

    • Scottish Independence Referendum (Franchise) Act 2013 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2013) link, s. 2(1)(a) as enacted. Source record
  36. 36.

    Claim: Scotland’s Future proposed that, after a Yes vote, the Scottish Government would negotiate for Scotland to become independent on 24 March 2016. Attributed to Scottish Government (2013)

    • Scottish Government, Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland (Scottish Government, November 2013), ISBN 9781784120689 link, Foreword and introduction, PDF pp. 12 and 16. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  37. 37.

    Claim: The 2013 prospectus proposed that Scotland would remain within the Union of the Crowns with the Queen as head of state and would keep the pound in a formal Sterling Area with the rest of the UK. Attributed to Scottish Government (2013)

    • Scottish Government, Scotland’s Future: Your Guide to an Independent Scotland (Scottish Government, November 2013), ISBN 9781784120689 link, PDF pp. 12 and 27. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  38. 38.

    Claim: On 13 February 2014 the Chancellor, George Osborne, said there was no legal reason for the rest of the UK to share its currency with an independent Scotland, and that leaving the UK would mean leaving the pound. Attributed to UK Government (Chancellor of the Exchequer)

    • Osborne, George and HM Treasury, Chancellor on the prospect of a currency union with an independent Scotland (GOV.UK, 13 February 2014) link, Speech text, passage on sharing the pound. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  39. 39.

    Claim: Yes Scotland and Better Together were appointed as the designated lead campaigners for the two outcomes in April 2014.

    • Electoral Commission, Scottish Independence Referendum: Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014 (Electoral Commission, December 2014) link, para. 1.3, PDF p. 26. Source record
  40. 40.

    Claim: 109,593 people aged 16 or 17 were registered to vote in the referendum.

    • Electoral Commission, Scottish Independence Referendum: Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014 (Electoral Commission, December 2014) link, Some key statistics, PDF p. 10. Source record
  41. 41.

    Claim: In the referendum on 18 September 2014, 2,001,926 votes (55.3%) were cast for No and 1,617,989 (44.7%) for Yes.

    • Electoral Management Board for Scotland, Result of the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 (Electoral Management Board for Scotland) link, Result for Scotland. Source record
  42. 42.

    Claim: The Electoral Commission’s report expresses the result as 55.25% and 44.65% of all votes counted, whereas the declared 55.3% and 44.7% are shares of valid votes.

    • Electoral Commission, Scottish Independence Referendum: Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014 (Electoral Commission, December 2014) link, PDF p. 10. Source record
    • Electoral Management Board for Scotland, Result of the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 (Electoral Management Board for Scotland) link, Result for Scotland. Source record
  43. 43.

    Claim: There were 4,283,938 registered voters; 3,623,344 votes were counted, a turnout of 84.6%, and 3,429 ballot papers were rejected.

    • Electoral Management Board for Scotland, Result of the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 (Electoral Management Board for Scotland) link, Overall. Source record
    • Electoral Commission, Scottish Independence Referendum: Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014 (Electoral Commission, December 2014) link, Some key statistics, PDF pp. 9–10. Source record
  44. 44.

    Claim: The Electoral Commission described the 84.6% turnout as the highest recorded at any Scotland-wide poll since universal suffrage and reported that the referendum was well run. Attributed to Electoral Commission

    • Electoral Commission, Scottish Independence Referendum: Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014 (Electoral Commission, December 2014) link, Foreword, PDF p. 4. Source record
  45. 45.

    Claim: On 27 November 2014 the Smith Commission published Heads of Agreement on further devolution reached by representatives of Scotland’s five main parties.

    • UK Government, The Smith Commission (GOV.UK, 27 November 2014) link, Statement, paras. 3–5. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  46. 46.

    Claim: The Scotland Act 2016 was introduced to deliver the Smith Commission Agreement.

    • Scotland Act 2016 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2016) link, Explanatory Notes, overview. Source record
  47. 47.

    Claim: The Scotland Act 2016 declares the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Government a permanent part of the UK’s constitutional arrangements, not to be abolished except after a referendum in Scotland.

    • Scotland Act 2016 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2016) link, s. 1, inserting s. 63A into the Scotland Act 1998. Source record
  48. 48.

    Claim: The 2016 Act recognises that the UK Parliament will not normally legislate on devolved matters without the Scottish Parliament’s consent.

    • Scotland Act 2016 (The National Archives (legislation.gov.uk), 2016) link, s. 2, inserting s. 28(8). Source record
  49. 49.

    Claim: In the EU referendum of 23 June 2016, voters in Scotland cast 1,661,191 votes for Remain and 1,018,322 for Leave, and Remain led in every council area.

    • Electoral Management Board for Scotland, EU Referendum 23 June 2016: results for Scotland (vote breakdown and breakdown of valid votes by percent) (Electoral Management Board for Scotland) link, Vote breakdown for Scotland; breakdown of valid votes by percent. Source record
  50. 50.

    Claim: Across the United Kingdom, 17,410,742 people (51.9%) voted to leave the European Union and 16,141,241 (48.1%) to remain.

    • Electoral Commission, The 2016 EU referendum: Report on the 23 June 2016 referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (Electoral Commission, September 2016) link, Summary of the result, PDF p. 8. Source record
  51. 51.

    Claim: On 16 March 2017 Prime Minister Theresa May said that “now is not the time” for another independence referendum, arguing that attention should be on the Brexit negotiations. Attributed to Theresa May, as reported by CNN

    • CNN, Theresa May rejects Scottish referendum call (CNN, 16 March 2017) link, opening paragraphs. Source record
  52. 52.

    Claim: On 28 March 2017 the Scottish Parliament voted 69 to 59 to mandate the Scottish Government to seek a section 30 order, with a referendum most appropriately held between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.

    • Scottish Parliament, Motion S5M-04710: Scotland’s Choice (Scottish Parliament, Lodged 20 March 2017; taken in the Chamber 28 March 2017) link, Motion as amended; vote. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  53. 53.

    Claim: On 31 March 2017 Nicola Sturgeon wrote to Theresa May to begin discussions on a section 30 order, citing the Parliament’s vote and the prospect of leaving the EU single market.

    • Scottish Government, Section 30 letter (Scottish Government, 31 March 2017) link, Letter text. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  54. 54.

    Claim: On 14 January 2020 Prime Minister Boris Johnson replied to a request of December 2019 that he could not agree to a transfer of power for further independence referendums, describing the 2014 vote as a promised “once in a generation” choice. Attributed to Boris Johnson (UK Government)

    • Johnson, Boris, Letter from PM Boris Johnson to Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon: 14 January 2020 (Prime Minister’s Office, 10 Downing Street (GOV.UK), 14 January 2020) link, Letter, p. 1. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  55. 55.

    Claim: At the 2021 election the SNP won 64 seats and the Scottish Greens eight.

    • Scottish Parliament, 2021 Election Results (Scottish Parliament) link, Party seat totals. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  56. 56.

    Claim: Scottish voters have elected a pro-independence majority to the Scottish Parliament at every election since 2011.

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, Introduction. Source record
  57. 57.

    Claim: The Referendums (Scotland) Act 2020 would set the rules for a future referendum held under Scottish legislation unless other provision were made, broadly replicating UK referendum law.

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, What rules would govern how an independence referendum would be held?. Source record
  58. 58.

    Claim: On 28 June 2022 First Minister Nicola Sturgeon proposed a consultative referendum on 19 October 2023 and announced that the Lord Advocate would refer the draft bill to the Supreme Court.

    • Scottish Government, Next steps in independence referendum set out (Scottish Government, 28 June 2022) link, Statement. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  59. 59.

    Claim: At the time of the reference the UK Government was unwilling to agree to another section 30 order.

    • Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 (Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022) link, Press summary, background. Source record
  60. 60.

    Claim: On 23 November 2022 the Supreme Court held unanimously that the proposed referendum provision related to the reserved matters of the Union and the UK Parliament, so the Scottish Parliament could not legislate for it without a change to the reserved matters.

    • Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 (Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022) link, paras. 82–83 and 92. Source record
  61. 61.

    Claim: The Court reasoned that even a referendum without immediate legal consequences would be a political event with important political consequences.

    • Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 (Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022) link, paras. 78–82. Source record
  62. 62.

    Claim: The Court rejected the SNP’s intervention based on the international right to self-determination, holding that the right was not in issue.

    • Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 (Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022) link, paras. 84–90. Source record
  63. 63.

    Claim: The Court’s press summary stressed that the reference raised a legal question about legislative competence, not the political question of whether Scotland should become independent.

    • Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, Reference by the Lord Advocate of devolution issues under paragraph 34 of Schedule 6 to the Scotland Act 1998 (Supreme Court of the United Kingdom, 23 November 2022) link, Press summary, “Background to the reference”. Source record The press summary is not part of the reasons for the decision.
  64. 64.

    Claim: In 2019 the SNP conference voted for a new Scottish currency “as soon as is practicable”; a Scottish Government paper of October 2025 proposed using sterling for a period before moving to a Scottish pound. Attributed to SNP conference (2019); Scottish Government (2025), as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, If Scotland voted Yes…, currency. Source record
    • Scottish Government, A Fresh Start with Independence (Scottish Government, 8 October 2025), ISBN 9781806430307 link, Publication page. Government perspective or primary official source Source record Confirms the paper’s title and date only; its currency proposal is taken from the Institute for Government summary.
  65. 65.

    Claim: In their 2026 manifesto the Scottish Greens pledged to start the section 30 process and called for the devolution of further reserved powers. Attributed to Scottish Greens, as summarised by the Institute for Government

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, Where do the Scottish parties stand on independence?. Source record
  66. 66.

    Claim: At the 2024 UK general election the SNP was reduced from 48 to 9 MPs.

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, Introduction. Source record
  67. 67.

    Claim: In the Scottish Social Attitudes survey, support for independence stood at 47% in 2024, compared with 27% in 1999.

    • National Centre for Social Research, Scottish Social Attitudes survey marks 25 years tracking Scotland’s changing views (National Centre for Social Research, 9 October 2025) link, Findings on identity and independence. Source record
  68. 68.

    Claim: At the Scottish Parliament election of 7 May 2026 the SNP won 58 seats, Labour 17, Reform UK 17, the Scottish Greens 15, the Conservatives 12 and the Liberal Democrats 10.

    • Scottish Parliament, 2026 Election Results (Scottish Parliament) link, Party seat totals. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  69. 69.

    Claim: The SNP fell short of the 65 seats needed for a majority, but the SNP and Greens together held 73 seats.

    • McKay, Sarah; McIver, Iain and Aiton, Andrew, The results are in – general election 2026 (Scottish Parliament Information Centre (SPICe), 9 May 2026) link, The make-up of the Session 7 Parliament. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  70. 70.

    Claim: On 26 May 2026 the Scottish Parliament agreed, by 72 votes to 55, a motion calling on the UK Government to make a section 30 order devolving the power to hold an independence referendum.

    • Scottish Parliament, Motion S7M-00105: Ambitious for Scotland (Scottish Parliament, Lodged 20 May 2026; taken in the Chamber 26 May 2026) link, Motion as amended; vote. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  71. 71.

    Claim: On 28 August 2026 the Scottish Government published a draft Independence Referendum Bill using the 2014 question; it said the bill would be introduced once the necessary powers were secured.

    • Scottish Government, Draft Independence Referendum Bill (Scottish Government, 28 August 2026), ISBN 9781807754792 link, Publication page and news release. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  72. 72.

    Claim: After the election, Prime Minister Keir Starmer congratulated John Swinney but restated his opposition to another referendum. Attributed to STV News report of 13 May 2026

    • STV News, Swinney to discuss independence referendum with Starmer in bid to end ‘stalemate’ (STV News, 13 May 2026) link, opening paragraphs. Source record
  73. 73.

    Claim: In September 2026 Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the Commons that another vote could be held if there were a clear consensus for it in Scotland, but a later letter to John Swinney said a referendum remained “off limits”. Attributed to PA Media report carried by STV News, 13 September 2026

    • PA Media, Devolved First Ministers to sign independence declaration (STV News, 13 September 2026) link, fifth paragraph. Source record
  74. 74.

    Claim: Pattie and colleagues read the scale of the 1997 Yes vote as suggesting that a parliament in Edinburgh was the “settled will” of Scottish voters, borrowing John Smith’s phrase. Attributed to Pattie, Denver, Mitchell and Bochel (1998)

    • Pattie, Charles; Denver, David; Mitchell, James and Bochel, Hugh, The 1997 Scottish Referendum: An Analysis of the Results, Scottish Affairs (Winter 1998) link, PDF p. 11. Source record
  75. 75.

    Claim: The Institute for Government described opinion polls as showing Scotland almost evenly divided, with neither side establishing a decisive lead. Attributed to Institute for Government (updated 29 May 2026)

    • Paun, Akash; Sargeant, Jess; Henderson, Duncan; Allen, Briony and Isaac, Megan, How could a second referendum on Scottish independence happen? (Institute for Government, 18 September 2024) link, Does the Scottish public support independence?. Source record

Source note

Show in the notes list

Printed from https://independenceatlas.com/movements/scotland/history · last substantive update 15 September 2026.