History of Kanaky / New Caledonia's independence question

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

1. 1.

   Claim: The 1998 Nouméa Accord provided for up to three independence referendums; the 2018 and 2020 referendums rejected independence by comparatively narrow margins.

   • 2021 New Caledonian independence referendum (Wikipedia) link, Nouméa Accord and earlier referendums section. Source record
2. 2.

   Claim: The third referendum, held in December 2021, resulted in 96.5% voting against independence, but was boycotted by pro-independence Kanak leaders and the FLNKS, who had called for postponement following a COVID-19 outbreak beginning September 2021 that caused around 280 deaths in the territory; the FLNKS has disputed the legitimacy of this result on that basis.

   • 2021 New Caledonian independence referendum (Wikipedia) link, 2021 referendum boycott and dispute section. Source record
3. 3.

   Claim: A French parliamentary bill adopted in May 2024, which would have extended local voting eligibility to French citizens resident in New Caledonia for at least ten years, triggered mass riots by pro-independence groups; President Emmanuel Macron declared a state of emergency and deployed police and military reinforcements, and the riots resulted in 14 deaths. In October 2024, then-Prime Minister Michel Barnier withdrew the bill to restore calm.

   • French senate votes in favour of New Caledonia independence despite Kanak opposition (National Indigenous Times) link, May 2024 riots section. Source record
   • Bougival Accord (Wikipedia) link, Riots death toll section. Source record
4. 4.

   Claim: On 12 July 2025, French Overseas Minister Manuel Valls and New Caledonian political party leaders signed the Bougival Accord in Bougival, France, proposing a "State of New Caledonia" within the French Republic that could, with a 36-member Congress majority, request transfer of further sovereign competencies (including defence, currency, security, justice, and legality oversight) and a share of foreign-relations authority, alongside a proposed Caledonian nationality alongside French nationality.

   • Bougival Accord (Wikipedia) link, Bougival Accord content section. Source record
5. 5.

   Claim: Support for the Bougival Accord eroded rapidly: the FLNKS withdrew its support within a month of signing, and the Customary Senate, a major Kanak union and the Kanak Protestant Church publicly rejected it; the constitutional reform bill needed to implement the accord was rejected by the French National Assembly on 2 April 2026, cancelling the referendum planned for early 2026 and leaving New Caledonia's constitutional future unresolved, with provincial assembly elections required before 28 June 2026.

   • After Bougival: New Caledonia's failed constitutional reform (Devpolicy Blog, Development Policy Centre) link, Accord collapse and National Assembly rejection section. Source record