Referendum or popular consultation

Southern Sudan independence referendum, 2011

Southern Sudanese voted 9–15 January 2011 on whether to remain united with Sudan or secede; international observers judged the process credible and the vote produced an overwhelming majority for secession.

The vote

Jurisdiction
Southern Sudan (with polling also in northern Sudan and eight out-of-country locations)
Organising authority
Southern Sudan Referendum Commission (SSRC) and Southern Sudan Referendum Bureau (SSRB), supported by the United Nations Integrated Referendum and Electoral Division (UNIRED)
Legal character
Legally bindingProvided for by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement and the Southern Sudan Referendum Act 2009; the CPA parties committed in advance to honour the result.[1]
Geographical scope
Southern Sudan, the ten northern Sudanese states, and out-of-country voting in eight countries (Australia, Canada, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, the United Kingdom and the United States)
Who could vote
Persons born to parents belonging to an indigenous Southern Sudanese community, or with ancestry traceable to one, or permanently resident in Southern Sudan (or whose parents or grandparents had been) without interruption since 1 January 1956; aged 18 or older.[2]
Question on the ballot
“Whether Southern Sudan should remain united with Sudan under the system of government established by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, or secede”
Reported results[3][4][5][6][7]. Percentages: share of valid votes.
OptionVotesOfficial %Calculated %
Secede from Sudan Not reported 98.83% Not reported
Remain united with Sudan Not reported 1.17% Not reported
Valid votes
3,837,406
Invalid votes
8,366
Blank votes
Not reported
Total ballots cast
3,851,994
Registered electorate
3,947,676
Turnout
97.58%official figure

The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission's Final Results Report gives 98.83% of valid votes for secession, with 6,222 blank and 8,366 invalid ballots (3,837,406 valid votes) out of 3,851,994 total votes cast. The 3,947,676 figure the Commission used for the turnout calculation exceeds the 3,932,588 voters on the Final Referendum Register announced a month earlier by 15,088; no explanation for the discrepancy was given in the primary source consulted.

Assessments of the vote

A declared result and an assessment of the vote’s legal effect or legitimacy are different claims. Each is attributed.

  • Carter Center (2011) · Observer assessment

    Broadly consistent with international standards for democratic elections, and the genuine expression of the will of the electorate.[4]

  • African Union Observer Mission (2011) · Observer assessment

    Free, fair and credible, and indeed a true reflection of the democratically expressed will of the people of Southern Sudan.[5]

  • UN Secretary-General's Panel on the Referenda in Sudan, chaired by Benjamin Mkapa (2011) · Observer assessment

    The process so far has been conducted in a peaceful and transparent manner that allowed the people of Southern Sudan to express their will freely.[6]

Limitations and competing accounts

The EU EOM identified a non-pluralistic campaign environment favouring secession, the failure to investigate 240 of 267 over-100%-turnout centres, bypassing of some statutory deadlines to meet the CPA's fixed polling date, and no formal mechanism to appeal the overall result rather than an individual centre's result.[8]

Immediate outcome

An overwhelming majority voted for secession; South Sudan declared independence on 9 July 2011 and was admitted to the United Nations five days later.[3][9]

What happened next

South Sudan declared independence on 9 July 2011. The Security Council recommended UN membership on 13 July and the General Assembly admitted South Sudan as its 193rd member on 14 July 2011.[10][9]

What happened

Although the Machakos Protocol had specified a referendum at the end of the Interim Period on 9 July 2011, the CPA's Implementation Modalities required voting six months earlier, and the poll was held from 9 to 15 January 2011.[11] The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission announced on 8 January 2011 that 3,932,588 voters were registered, the large majority of them in Southern Sudan.[12] The European Union Election Observation Mission concluded that the referendum "was a credible process that accurately reflects the overwhelming desire of Southern Sudanese voters for secession," despite shortcomings including a non-pluralistic campaign environment and the decision not to investigate all polling centres with turnout above 100%.[8]

According to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission's Final Results Report of 7 February 2011, turnout was 97.58%, and 98.83% of valid votes cast were for secession, with invalid ballots at 0.2% and blank ballots at 0.16% of votes cast — an unusually low combined rate the EU mission linked to widespread assisted voting.[3] The number of registered voters used to calculate this turnout figure, 3,947,676, was 15,088 higher than the 3,932,588 voters on the Final Referendum Register announced a month earlier; the Commission's report did not explain the discrepancy.[7]

Concerns about high-turnout centres

The referendum administration set a policy, on the advice of its international technical partners, of investigating only the 27 polling centres where turnout exceeded 105% of registered voters; a further 240 centres recorded turnout between 100% and 105% and were not investigated. In total, 267 of roughly 2,900 Referendum Centres — over 9% — recorded turnout above 100%.[13] The EU Election Observation Mission judged this policy "poorly advised," writing that tolerating turnout above 100% without investigation "sets a bad precedent and could encourage electoral fraud in future electoral processes, not just in Sudan but in the region."[14] Officials attributed the excess turnout in the 27 investigated centres to clerical errors in voter-registration data rather than fraud, and expressed confidence the remaining 240 would show the same pattern if investigated.[13]

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: On 9 January 2005 the National Congress Party and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Sudan People's Liberation Army signed the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, ending the second Sudanese civil war of 1983–2005 and opening a six-year Interim Period beginning 9 July 2005, during which the two parties formed a Government of National Unity and Southern Sudan gained regional autonomy.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Political context. Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: Eligibility to register and vote was established by ancestry traceable to an indigenous Southern Sudanese community, or by permanent residence (by the voter, a parent or a grandparent) in Southern Sudan without interruption since 1 January 1956, and being aged 18 or older.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Eligibility. Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission's Final Results Report of 7 February 2011 recorded a turnout of 97.58%; 98.83% of valid votes cast were for secession, with invalid ballots at 0.2% and blank ballots at 0.16% of total votes cast, and 3,837,406 valid votes out of 3,851,994 total votes cast.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Results announcement and analysis of results. Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: The Carter Center assessed the referendum process as "broadly consistent with international standards for democratic elections" and as "the genuine expression of the will of the electorate." Attributed to The Carter Center

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Conclusions of the international and domestic observation missions. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: The African Union Observer Mission assessed the referendum as conducted in accordance with the CPA and SSRC guidelines, in a peaceful, secure and orderly environment, and "free, fair and credible, and indeed a true reflection of the democratically expressed will of the people of Southern Sudan"; the Intergovernmental Authority on Development reached a similar assessment, calling the process "a major milestone in promoting peace and democratic transformation of Southern Sudan." Attributed to African Union Observer Mission and IGAD

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Conclusions of the international and domestic observation missions. Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: The Chairperson of the UN Secretary-General's Panel on the Referenda in Sudan, former Tanzanian President Benjamin Mkapa, reported to the Security Council on 18 January 2011 that the process had "so far...been conducted in a peaceful and transparent manner that allowed the people of Southern Sudan to express their will freely." Attributed to Benjamin Mkapa, Chairperson of the UN Secretary-General's Panel on the Referenda in Sudan

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Conclusions of the international and domestic observation missions. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: The number of voters used to calculate the 97.58% turnout figure, 3,947,676, was 15,088 higher than the 3,932,588 voters on the Final Referendum Register announced a month earlier, a discrepancy the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission's Final Results Report did not explain.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Results announcement and analysis of results. Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: The EU Election Observation Mission concluded that the referendum was a credible process that accurately reflected the overwhelming desire of Southern Sudanese voters for secession, notwithstanding a non-pluralistic campaign environment, the decision not to investigate all polling centres with turnout above 100%, the bypassing of some statutory deadlines to meet the CPA's fixed polling date, and the absence of a mechanism to appeal the overall result. Attributed to European Union Election Observation Mission

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Executive summary, para. 3. Source record
  9. 9.

    Claim: The UN General Assembly decided to admit the Republic of South Sudan to membership in the United Nations at its 108th plenary meeting on 14 July 2011, following the Security Council's recommendation of 13 July 2011; South Sudan became the 193rd UN member state.

    • United Nations General Assembly, General Assembly resolution 65/308: Admission of the Republic of South Sudan to membership in the United Nations (United Nations, 14 July 2011) link, operative paragraph and meeting note. Source record
  10. 10.

    Claim: On 13 July 2011, at its 6582nd meeting, the Security Council, having examined the Republic of South Sudan's application for UN membership (S/2011/418), recommended to the General Assembly that it be admitted.

    • United Nations Security Council, Security Council resolution 1999 (2011) (United Nations, 13 July 2011) link, operative paragraph. Source record
  11. 11.

    Claim: The Machakos Protocol specified that the referendum would take place at the end of the Interim Period, 9 July 2011, but the CPA's Implementation Modalities required voting six months before the end of the Interim Period; the referendum was held from 9 to 15 January 2011.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Political context. Source record
  12. 12.

    Claim: The Southern Sudan Referendum Commission announced on 8 January 2011 that 3,932,588 voters were registered for the referendum, 95.5% of them in Southern Sudan.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Executive summary, para. 12. Source record
  13. 13.

    Claim: Of roughly 2,900 Referendum Centres, 267 (over 9%) recorded turnout above 100%; only the 27 centres exceeding 105% turnout were investigated, all found to involve clerical errors in voter-registration data rather than fraud, while the remaining 240 centres between 100% and 105% turnout were not investigated.

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Data Centre procedures. Source record
  14. 14.

    Claim: The EU Election Observation Mission judged the decision not to investigate all over-100%-turnout centres as poorly advised, writing that tolerating turnout in excess of 100% without investigation "sets a bad precedent and could encourage electoral fraud in future electoral processes, not just in Sudan but in the region." Attributed to European Union Election Observation Mission

    • European Union Election Observation Mission, Final Report: Southern Sudan Referendum, 9–15 January 2011 (European Union Election Observation Mission, 2011) link, Data Centre procedures. Source record

Source note

Show in the notes list