Referendum or popular consultation

Bougainville referendum, 2019

Bougainvilleans chose between greater autonomy and independence; 176,928 of 181,067 ballot papers counted were for independence.

The vote

Jurisdiction
Autonomous Region of Bougainville, Papua New Guinea
Organising authority
Bougainville Referendum Commission
Legal character
ConsultativeThe Commission described the result as non-binding. Under the Peace Agreement the outcome is subject to ratification by the National Parliament, which has final decision-making authority.[1][2]
Geographical scope
Bougainville, with non-resident Bougainvilleans eligible under the Peace Agreement
Who could vote
Under the Peace Agreement, the same as for national elections in Bougainville plus non-resident Bougainvilleans.[3]
Reported results[4][5][1][6][2]. Percentages: share of all ballots cast.
OptionVotesOfficial %Calculated %
Greater Autonomy (option 1) 3,043 Not reported 1.68%
Independence (option 2) 176,928 97.7% 97.71%
Valid votes
Not reported
Invalid votes
1,096
Blank votes
Not reported
Total ballots cast
181,067
Registered electorate
Not reported
Turnout
Not reported

The 97.7% recorded by the two governments equals independence votes as a share of all 181,067 ballot papers counted, including 1,096 informal ballots. No official percentage for Greater Autonomy was found. The Commission described turnout as at least 85 per cent but the size of the roll was not found.

Assessments of the vote

A declared result and an assessment of the vote’s legal effect or legitimacy are different claims. Each is attributed.

  • Governments of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville (Joint Communique, 2021) · Governmental assessment

    Recorded the referendum as free and fair and, citing observer groups, “credible, transparent and inclusive”.[7]

  • Delegation of the European Union to Papua New Guinea · Governmental assessment

    Welcomed the peaceful conduct of the referendum.[8]

Limitations and competing accounts

The exact ballot wording, the size of the referendum roll and the official turnout figure have not yet been retrieved from the Commission’s final report.[9]

Immediate outcome

Independence received 176,928 of 181,067 ballot papers counted, recorded by the two governments as 97.7%.[4][5] The vote did not by itself change Bougainville’s constitutional status.[2]

What happened next

The two governments began joint consultations in January 2021. The result was tabled in the National Parliament with a Joint Consultation Report and the Melanesian Framework on 27 August 2026; as of the latest report consulted, of 28 August 2026, no ratification vote had been held.[10][11][12]

What happened

The Bougainville Referendum Commission, chaired by Bertie Ahern, conducted polling between 23 November and 7 December 2019.[13][6] Voters chose between Greater Autonomy and Independence, and the two governments had agreed in advance what independence would mean.[14][15]

On 11 December the Commission declared 176,928 votes for Independence and 3,043 for Greater Autonomy.[4] The Commission had said the result would be non-binding; under the Peace Agreement the National Parliament has the final say.[1][2]

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: Before the vote the Commission told voters that the referendum offered a choice between independence from Papua New Guinea and greater autonomy within it, and that the result would be non-binding.

    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Bougainville Referendum Commission fact sheet 1 (Bougainville Referendum Commission, File placed in the website’s May 2019 upload folder) link, PDF p. 2. Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: Under the Agreement the referendum outcome is subject to ratification (final decision-making authority) of the National Parliament, and the two governments are to consult over the results.

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Leaders representing the people of Bougainville, Bougainville Peace Agreement (United Nations Security Council, 23 October 2001) link, clause 311, PDF p. 69. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: Eligibility to vote was to be the same as for national elections in Bougainville, plus non-resident Bougainvilleans.

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Leaders representing the people of Bougainville, Bougainville Peace Agreement (United Nations Security Council, 23 October 2001) link, clause 315, PDF p. 70. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: On 11 December 2019 the Commission declared 176,928 votes for Independence and 3,043 for Greater Autonomy, with 1,096 informal ballot papers, from 181,067 ballot papers counted.

    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Statement from the Commission (Bougainville Referendum Commission, 11 December 2019) link, statement text. Source record
    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Bougainville Referendum Commission (website home page) (Bougainville Referendum Commission) link, results panel. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: The two governments record that 181,067 Bougainvilleans voted and that 97.7% of them chose independence.

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Autonomous Bougainville Government, Joint Communique on the Outcome of the Bougainville Referendum (UN Peacemaker (copy), 11 January 2021) link, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: Polling took place between 23 November and 7 December 2019.

    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Bougainville Referendum Commission (website home page) (Bougainville Referendum Commission) link, results panel. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: The Joint Communique records that the referendum, witnessed by international observers, was free and fair and, according to observer groups, “credible, transparent and inclusive”. Attributed to Governments of Papua New Guinea and Bougainville (2021)

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Autonomous Bougainville Government, Joint Communique on the Outcome of the Bougainville Referendum (UN Peacemaker (copy), 11 January 2021) link, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: The EU Delegation in Port Moresby welcomed the peaceful conduct of the referendum and said the consultations due under the Agreement should be conducted in the same spirit until the National Parliament decides on Bougainville’s future political status. Attributed to Delegation of the European Union to Papua New Guinea

    • Delegation of the European Union to Papua New Guinea, Statement on the outcome of the Bougainville Referendum on Independence (European External Action Service, 12 December 2019) link, statement text. Source record
  9. 9.

    Claim: The Commission described turnout as at least 85 per cent. Attributed to Bougainville Referendum Commission

    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Statement from the Commission (Bougainville Referendum Commission, 11 December 2019) link, statement text. Source record
  10. 10.

    Claim: On 11 January 2021 the two governments committed to begin joint consultations on the referendum outcome under section 342(1) of the National Constitution and clause 311(b) of the Agreement, affirming that the outcome is subject to ratification by the National Parliament.

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Autonomous Bougainville Government, Joint Communique on the Outcome of the Bougainville Referendum (UN Peacemaker (copy), 11 January 2021) link, PDF p. 1. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  11. 11.

    Claim: On 27 August 2026 the Minister for Bougainville Affairs, Manasseh Makiba, tabled the referendum result, the Joint Consultation Report and the Melanesian Framework in the National Parliament; after debate Parliament adjourned without a vote.

    • Blades, Johnny, PNG parliament decision on Bougainville still months off at least (RNZ, 28 August 2026) link, opening paragraphs. Source record
  12. 12.

    Claim: As of 28 August 2026 Bougainville remained an autonomous region of Papua New Guinea, and it was not clear when Parliament would vote on ratifying the referendum result.

    • Blades, Johnny, PNG parliament decision on Bougainville still months off at least (RNZ, 28 August 2026) link, opening paragraphs. Source record
    • Blades, Johnny, Long time coming: After decades of struggle, is Bougainville on the brink of statehood? (RNZ, 27 August 2026) link, opening paragraphs. Source record
  13. 13.

    Claim: The referendum was conducted by the Bougainville Referendum Commission, an independent body established by the two governments and chaired by the former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern.

    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Bougainville Referendum Commission fact sheet 1 (Bougainville Referendum Commission, File placed in the website’s May 2019 upload folder) link, PDF p. 1. Source record
    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Autonomous Bougainville Government, Joint Communique on the Outcome of the Bougainville Referendum (UN Peacemaker (copy), 11 January 2021) link, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
  14. 14.

    Claim: Voters were offered two options: option 1, Greater Autonomy, and option 2, Independence.

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Autonomous Bougainville Government, Joint Communique on the Outcome of the Bougainville Referendum (UN Peacemaker (copy), 11 January 2021) link, PDF p. 2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Bougainville Referendum Commission, Bougainville Referendum Commission (website home page) (Bougainville Referendum Commission) link, results panel. Source record
  15. 15.

    Claim: Before the vote the two governments agreed that independence meant an independent nation with sovereign powers and laws, recognised under international law and by other states as separate from Papua New Guinea, with a defined territory, a government chosen by its people, and capacity to conduct international relations and hold UN membership.

    • Government of Papua New Guinea and Autonomous Bougainville Government, Joint Communique on the Outcome of the Bougainville Referendum (UN Peacemaker (copy), 11 January 2021) link, PDF pp. 1–2. Government perspective or primary official source Source record

Source note

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