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Why population and support estimates can disagree

Numbers about peoples, votes and opinion depend on who is counted, when, and against what total.

2 min read · updated 15 September 2026

Who is counted

Population figures depend on coverage. A 2024 Moroccan census covered only the part of Western Sahara west of the berm and not Sahrawi refugees living in camps near Tindouf.[1] Estimates for peoples living across several states can span wide ranges: the BBC gave 25–35 million for the Kurds.[2]

Against what total

The same result can be expressed as different percentages. Scotland’s 2014 result was 55.3% of valid votes but 55.25% of all votes counted.[3] Turnout figures can also vary slightly between official and academic accounts.[4]

Opinion polls

Poll results depend on how undecided respondents are treated. In one August 2026 Quebec survey, support for sovereignty was 28% with 9% undecided, or 31% once the undecided were allocated.[5] Wording and conditions matter too: in a 2025 Greenland poll, 56% backed independence, yet 45% did not want it if it lowered living standards.[6]

Casualty estimates

Careful estimates carry margins and definitions. A study for Timor-Leste’s truth commission gave a minimum of 102,800 conflict-related deaths with a margin of ±12,000, counting deaths from hunger and illness as well as killings.[7] For Bougainville, scholars dispute much higher figures that circulated widely.[8]

How this atlas shows numbers

Figures on this site carry their date, source and scope, and percentages name their denominator. Where credible estimates differ, the range and the reason are shown rather than a single chosen number.

Sources for this page

Each number marks a specific claim. Notes give the source, its locator and how it relates to the claim.

  1. 1.

    Claim: A 2024 Moroccan census reported about 600,000 people in the part of Western Sahara west of the berm; it does not cover Sahrawi refugees in camps near Tindouf, Algeria. Attributed to Moroccan authorities, as reported by the UN Secretary-General

    • United Nations Secretary-General, Situation concerning Western Sahara: report of the Secretary-General (United Nations, 30 September 2025) link, paras. 10 and 64, pp. 2 and 10. Source record
  2. 2.

    Claim: The BBC estimated in 2019 that there are between 25 and 35 million Kurds. Attributed to BBC News (2019)

    • BBC News, Who are the Kurds? (BBC, First published 21 October 2014; updated 15 October 2019) link, opening paragraphs. Source record
  3. 3.

    Claim: The Electoral Commission expressed the 2014 Scottish result as 55.25% and 44.65% of all votes counted, whereas the declared 55.3% and 44.7% were shares of valid votes.

    • Electoral Commission, Scottish Independence Referendum: Report on the referendum held on 18 September 2014 (Electoral Commission, December 2014) link, PDF p. 10. Source record
    • Electoral Management Board for Scotland, Result of the Scottish Independence Referendum 2014 (Electoral Management Board for Scotland) link, Result for Scotland. Source record
  4. 4.

    Claim: Published turnout figures for Scotland’s 1997 referendum differ slightly: 60.1% on the first question in the Scottish Parliament’s account, and 60.4% in an academic analysis.

    • Scottish Parliament, The path to devolution (Scottish Parliament) link, Referendum results, para. 3. Government perspective or primary official source Source record
    • Pattie, Charles; Denver, David; Mitchell, James and Bochel, Hugh, The 1997 Scottish Referendum: An Analysis of the Results, Scottish Affairs (Winter 1998) link, PDF p. 4. Source record
  5. 5.

    Claim: In Léger’s August 2026 Quebec survey, 31% supported sovereignty and 69% opposed once undecided respondents were allocated; before allocation the figures were 28%, 63% and 9% undecided. Attributed to Léger

    • Léger, Intentions de vote au Québec — rapport, 11 août 2026 (Léger, 11 August 2026) link, p. 24. Source record
  6. 6.

    Claim: In a January 2025 poll in Greenland, 56% of respondents said they would vote for independence, but 45% did not want it if it lowered living standards. Attributed to Verian (for Berlingske and Sermitsiaq)

    • Verian, Opinion poll in Greenland, January 2025 (Verian Group, 29 January 2025) link, results summary. Source record
  7. 7.

    Claim: A statistical study for Timor-Leste’s truth commission estimated at least 102,800 conflict-related deaths between 1974 and 1999, with a margin of ±12,000, including deaths from hunger and illness as well as killings. Attributed to Romesh Silva and Patrick Ball (HRDAG), report to the CAVR (2006)

    • Silva, Romesh and Ball, Patrick, The Profile of Human Rights Violations in Timor-Leste, 1974–1999 (Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group, 9 February 2006) link, pp. 1–2. Source record
  8. 8.

    Claim: For Bougainville, Braithwaite and colleagues reject widely publicised death tolls of 15,000–20,000 as baseless and treat an estimate of perhaps several thousand deaths as the most authoritative. Disputed — see the text for the competing accounts

    • Braithwaite, John; Charlesworth, Hilary; Reddy, Peter and Dunn, Leah, Reconciliation and Architectures of Commitment (ANU E Press, 2010), ISBN 9781921666681 link, pp. 86–87. Source record

Source note

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